New home baked hot public being kept hidden-antik

New home baked public hot. China kept hidden listed companies public opinion center Lai Ziming "small scattered very not easy to gather together enough 40% Shoufu, think A shares gamble but Canbei cut. Are tears when suddenly a shout: "people don’t go down 20%!"." The central bank and the CBRC announced new housing, this by the users to write scripts in the field of public opinion spread like wildfire. The afternoon of February 2nd, the central bank and the CBRC announced that in the implementation of the restriction measures in the city, residents’ families for the purchase of ordinary housing commercial housing loans to individuals, in principle, the minimum down payment ratio of 25%, down 5 percentage points over the floating. With the introduction of the policy choice usually differ in March "NPC and CPPCC" before and after the release of the policy choice in the eve of the Spring Festival, from the 2015 "930" property deal for only four months, the policy of the release point by media attention, is considered "profound". Insiders believe that "reflects the macro economy and real estate market are facing enormous pressure, some industry insiders believe that this is to promote the" white-collar workers return home buyers holding funds". The characteristics of the new policy "local policy implementation" are also concerned. Centaline group research director Liu Yuan mentioned in his column, at present, inter city performance differentiation has become the basic characteristics of the domestic property market, but also a difficult problem for the bailout policy. The national policy of one size fits all will inevitably add fuel to the first tier cities. Therefore, the new housing policy, the implementation of the space for the place. Minsheng Bank China chief researcher Wen Bin in an interview also said that the new deal "embodies the basic principles for the application of central bank policy, in promoting the stable development of the real estate at the same time, but also to protect the local commercial bank credit assets security". There are reports quoted close to the central economic decision-making department sources said, "the central control of the gate after the opening stage, the local government still more." Mortgage new deal intended to the real estate market to inventory without doubt. Chief macroeconomic analyst at Guotai Junan Ren Zeping "cautiously positive interpretation" in the column, "Shoufu policy intended to inventory steady moderate economic expansion of aggregate demand, with supply side reforms, rather than excessive stimulation." However, Ren Zeping, another proposition in this paper is intended to highlight the media headlines, and how much reflects public concern on the current real estate market: "the current real estate more pessimistic expectations, the down payment policy to relax, to moderate the expansion of aggregate demand and boost market confidence. But note that, due to changes in the structure of the population, the real estate investment era has never ended, to stimulate the real estate to achieve economic recovery will be unrealistic." "Big property cycle inflection point approaching", "facing the limit of the growth of real estate investment" has also been mentioned by other institutions. The follow-up policy has also become a major concern of public opinion. Yang Hongxu, vice president of E-House Research Institute reviewed since the founding of the history of personal loans in their article, the first suite Shoufu low to 20% is "the end", "time loans Shoufu ratio is the lowest in the fourth quarter of 2008 to 2009, at that time in the" four trillion "and put on credit

房贷新政出炉 舆论热议之中存隐忧   中国上市公司舆情中心 赖梓铭   “小散好不容易凑够四成首付,想到A股赌一把却惨被腰斩。正在欲哭无泪之时,突然一声大喝:‘老乡别走,首付两成!’。”央行和银监会宣布房贷新政后,这个由网友编写的段子在舆论场中不胫而走。   2月2日下午,央行和银监会宣布,在不实施“限购”措施的城市,居民家庭首次购买普通住房的商业性个人住房贷款,原则上最低首付款比例为25%,各地可向下浮动5个百分点。   与以往出台政策通常选择在3月“两会”前后有所不同,本次政策发布选择在了春节前夕,距离2015年的“930”房产新政只有四个月,政策的发布时点受到舆论高度关注,被认为“意味深远”。有业内人士认为“反映出宏观经济和房地产市场都面临着巨大的压力”,也有业内人士认为这是为了“促进手握资金的白领们回乡置业”。   新政“因地施策”的特点也受到关注。中原集团研究总监刘渊在其专栏中提到,目前,城市间表现分化已成为国内楼市的基本特征,也为救市政策出了难题。全国一刀切的政策难免会对一线城市火上浇油。因此此次房贷新政,把执行的空间留给地方。中国民生银行首席研究员温彬在接受媒体采访中也提到,新政“体现了央行因地施策的基本原则,在促进房地产稳定发展的同时,也保障了当地商业银行的信贷资产安全”。有报道则引述接近中央经济决策部门人士称,“中央调控闸口放开后,更大的舞台还在地方政府。”   房贷新政意在房地产市场去库存毋庸置疑。国泰君安首席宏观分析师任泽平在其专栏文章中有“四平八稳”的正面解读,“首付政策放松意在去库存稳经济适度扩大总需求,以配合供给侧改革为主,而非过度刺激。”   不过,任泽平在该文中的另一论断则被媒体拟为标题加以突出,多少反映出舆论对当前房地产市场的担忧:“目前房地产预期较为悲观,本次首付政策放松,意在适度扩大总需求并提振市场信心。但需要注意的是,由于人口结构发生变化,房地产高投资时代已经永远地落幕,指望刺激房地产实现经济复苏将是不切实际的。”“房产大周期拐点临近”、“面临房地产投资增长的极限”也被其他一些机构人士所提及。   后续的政策也成为舆论的一大关注点。   易居研究院副院长杨红旭在其文章中回顾了建国以来的个人房贷历史,认为当前首套房首付比例低至二成已是“大底”,“房贷首付比例最低的时间段是2008年四季度至2009年,当时在‘四万亿’与信贷大放水的救经济与救楼市背景下,房贷政策最为宽松,首套全部为二成”。   有券商则认为,首付比例下调的空间依然存在。民生证券宏观分析师朱振鑫指出,去库存是供给侧改革第一要务,激发房地产合理需求是去库存第一要务。下调公积金首付后,下调一般贷款首付顺理成章,不排除进一步下调可能。中信建投团队亦认为,首付比例下调的空间依然存在,但幅度可能有限。   后续政策还会有,也可能未必围绕着首付比例,有媒体报道提到“一大波政策”正在赶来的路上。《第一财经日报》报道称,从相关部门得知,许多部门的政策调研和预案已经完成,只待适时择机发布。该报道对后续政策多有猜测,提到“户籍改革以及将农民工全面纳入公积金体系等,是接下来的重头戏”,“包括土地供应、税费调整、融资限制等一系列金融和财政相关政策的调整,也被认为是楼市去库存的重要方向”。   在一些专业人士看来,对房贷新政的效果并不乐观。中原集团研究总监刘渊提到,“降息、降准、减税等救市政策,从去年的实践结果来看,对一线城市影响显著而对三四线基本没效果,还扩大了城市间的不平衡。”许多专业人士评价三四线城市房产高库存时也多提到人口结构变化、人口净流出等问题,更有人质疑“首付可以降,利息可以减,就是房价还要涨。我还没见过一种库存积压如山的商品这么强势。”   交银国际董事总经理兼首席策略师更指出,“房地产泡沫是比人民币贬值更大的风险”,“中国将继续货币宽松以延续房地产泡沫,同时实现某种形式的资本管制以缓解由于货币宽松导致的人民币贬值的压力。然而,稳定人民币汇率仍然会消耗中国的外汇储备。这些紧绷着的表面平衡最终将从压力最小之处破裂。”   有好事者历数过去2年实施过的政策,表达对当前的房贷新政的担忧,同样引爆舆论:“从克林顿的高新产业大众创新,到马歇尔计划,弗里德曼的货币供给,再到里根的供给侧改革,然后是凯恩斯的政府刺激总需求,最后终于回到了中国特色的房地产拉动上。” 进入【新浪财经股吧】讨论相关的主题文章: