INVESCO the Great Wall Yu Guang risk control first in 2016-spyair

INVESCO the Great Wall: 2016 to more than wide dismal start control in the first place in 2015 experienced the ups and downs of the baptism of the market and the risks in 2016, the Spring Festival break return of the fund manager will be how to deal with the year of the monkey "monkey"? Yu Guang during the Spring Festival, A share investors to celebrate the Spring Festival, but the overseas market is not calm, if taking into account the sharp correction in A market in January of 2016, I think the investment needs of the risk control in the first place, on this basis, grasp the structural investment opportunities. Why is risk control so important in 2016? The reason is that there is too much uncertainty in 2016, and the impact on the market is hard to predict. These uncertainties include the dollar interest rate, the RMB exchange rate risk, the registration system will greatly increase the supply of shares, Chinese economic slowdown and has yet to see signs of improvement. At the same time, in terms of liquidity, after 2014, 2015 consecutive rate cut, the current one-year deposit rate has dropped to 1.5%, 10 year Treasury yields fell to 2.7%, from this perspective, the 2016 liquidity effect in diminishing marginal improvement. In addition, under the background of economic slowdown and the implementation of supply side reform, the risk of debt default is also increasing. If we take into account the sharp adjustment of A shares in January, investors now A shares are more important to the risk, the market is difficult to reverse in the short term. In the short term, it is more important to stabilize the RMB exchange rate, and if the United States does not raise interest rates in March, it will also help the stability of the short-term market. Return to the market itself, from a valuation point of view, now the gem valuation is still very expensive, as of February 5, 2016, the Shenzhen stock exchange data show that the gem average price earnings ratio of 81.7 times, the individual company is ridiculously expensive, these companies just tell the story, but the lack of performance concept. However, in the context of Nishajuxia, many industry leading blue chip company valuation also becomes cheaper, these companies can focus on. Although the emerging industry is good, but there are not many good companies. When investing in emerging industry companies, we need to carefully consider and select carefully. In the emerging industry differentiation situation, traditional industries are also facing many problems, in the economic malaise in the background, the traditional cyclical industry is difficult to see. In the financial sector, such as banks, although cheap, but because of bad debts, the bank estimated that this year is difficult to see the performance of growth; the real estate industry development gold period has passed, the future growth more difficult, although the country continues to stimulate the industry, investment in the real estate industry, there is only the opportunity to stage. Overall, although some industries and traditional industries in the valuation of the company is cheap, but because it is difficult to see the long-term growth inflection point, there is only the band of investment opportunities, the opportunity to intervene and rebound is not good grasp. Overall, the risks need to be well controlled in 2016. (Department of the Great Wall Jingshun fund investment director) Sina statement: this information reproduced from sina Associated Media, sina.com.cn posted this article for more information to pass, does not mean that agree with their views or confirm the description. The content of the article is only theory

景顺长城余广:2016年把风险控制放在第一位   经历2015年跌宕起伏的市场洗礼和2016年的惨淡开局,春节休整归来的基金经理将如何应对猴年“猴市”?   余广   春节期间,A股投资者欢度春节,但海外市场并不平静,如果考虑到A股市场1月份的剧烈调整,我认为2016年投资需要把风险控制放在第一位,在此基础上,把握结构性投资机会。   为何风险控制在2016年如此重要?原因在于2016年不确定性太多,对市场产生的影响难以预估。这些不确定性因素包括美元加息、人民币汇率风险、注册制将使股票供给大为增加、中国经济增长放缓且目前还没有看到改善迹象。同时,在流动性方面,经过2014年、2015年连续降息,目前一年期存款利率已经下降至1.5%,10年期国债收益率下降至2.7%,从这个角度来讲,2016年流动性边际改善的效应在递减。此外,在经济增长放缓以及实施供给侧改革的背景下,债务违约等风险也在增加。如果再考虑到1月份A股的剧烈调整,现在A股的投资者都把风险看得更为重要,市场在短期内很难出现反转。短期来说,现在人民币汇率稳住变得更为重要了,3月份美国如果不加息,也会对短期市场的稳定有帮助。   回到市场本身,从估值来看,现在创业板估值还是很贵,截至2016年2月5日,深交所数据显示,创业板平均市盈率81.7倍,个别公司更是贵得离谱,这些公司只是讲故事、讲概念,但是缺乏业绩。不过,在泥沙俱下的背景下,不少行业龙头的绩优公司估值也变得便宜了,这类公司可重点关注。新兴行业虽然整体不错,但好公司并不多,在投资新兴行业公司时,需要仔细斟酌,精挑细选。   在新兴行业分化的情况下,传统行业也面临不少问题,在经济不振的背景下,传统行业中的周期性行业难以看到起色。金融行业中,比如银行,虽然估值便宜,但是由于坏账因素,估计今年银行难以看到业绩增长;房地产行业的黄金发展时期已经过去了,未来增长比较困难,虽然国家在不断刺激这个行业,在投资上,房地产行业也只存在阶段性机会。总体来看,传统行业中虽然有些行业和公司估值便宜,但是由于难以看到长期增长拐点,只存在波段性的投资机会,介入时机和反弹幅度并不好把握。   总体而言,2016年需要控制好风险。   (作者系景顺长城基金投资总监) 新浪声明:此消息系转载自新浪合作媒体,新浪网登载此文出于传递更多信息之目的,并不意味着赞同其观点或证实其描述。文章内容仅供参考,不构成投资建议。投资者据此操作,风险自担。 进入【新浪财经股吧】讨论相关的主题文章: