Crude steel production rebounded in the off-season and steel prices rose after the festival-guitarpro5

Crude steel production rebounded after the off-season steel prices or rising crude steel production rebounded after the steel price rise off-season or the Spring Festival approaching, most domestic sites have a holiday. Rebar spot demand also entered the "hibernation" state, to the mainstream of Shanghai three grade rebar prices, for example, the price stagnated in the week 1860 tons. However, crude steel production is showing signs of recovery in the off-season. According to CISA statistics, as of January 10th, the domestic steel enterprises focus on the average daily crude steel production was 1 million 568 thousand and 100 tons, compared with late December last year, an increase of 52 thousand and 600 tons. Although late in January 20th when the domestic steel enterprises focus on the average daily crude steel production fell to 1 million 513 thousand and 600 tons, but from industry website statistics to iron and steel enterprises, January 29th blast furnace operating rate rose to 73.90%, an increase of 0.14% over January 22nd. This shows that some steel mills have begun to prepare for the traditional peak demand year after year, and the output can rise at any time. The main reason for this change in the steel industry lies in the improvement of steel production profits. According to all information provided by the data, the profitability of steel had increased from 12 at the end of last year’s 4.91% rise to 25.77%, and some steel mills have been discontinued are seeking financial support, intends to resume production. What is the downstream demand for the future? From the data in December 2015, the national fixed asset investment has increased by 10%, compared with November decreased by 0.2%, a slight decline in the trend of decline. The 12 real estate development investment cumulative growth rate of 1%, down 0.3% compared to January. In December, the total amount of investment in infrastructure construction increased by 17.29%, and still maintained a high growth rate. In the second half of 2015, in order to stabilize economic growth, the state has approved a number of construction projects. Bureau of statistics released data show that as of the end of 12 new projects with total investment growth of 5.50%, has rebounded significantly compared to 4.7% in November; as of the end of 12 in the construction project total investment of 4.30% year-on-year, compared with 11 at the end of 5.60% fell 1.3%. The market is expected, if the project funds in place in time, the spring of 2016 is expected to have a construction climax. At this time, the whole society steel inventory is relatively low. Steel inventories are roughly divided into steel social inventories and steel inventories. As of January 20th, the steel stocks for the steel plant was 12 million 503 thousand and 300 tons, 15.30% lower than that of the same period last year. As of January 29th, the social stock of rebar was 4 million 19 thousand tons, which rebounded by 465 thousand and 400 tons at the end of last month, compared with the same period last year, which was 19.72% lower than that of the same period last year. As the steel price continued to fall in 2015, the number of steel stores at the terminal site declined more than in previous years. This steel inventory pressure is relatively light, the trader subsidy policy than in previous years and less social inventory with the rebound in steel prices, traders showed increasingly willing Tun library. However, the bank loans for steel trade enterprises have been very tight, the growth potential of social inventory is limited. As a result, the market is expected to start in the spring of 2016, will appear on

粗钢产量淡季回升 节后钢价或上涨   粗钢产量淡季回升 节后钢价或上涨   临近春节,国内工地多数已经放假。螺纹钢现货需求也进入“冬眠”的状态,以上海地区主流三级大螺纹钢价格为例,一周来价格停滞在1860元 吨。然而粗钢产量却在淡季出现回升的迹象。   按照中钢协的统计数据,截至1月10日当旬,国内重点钢企日均粗钢产量为156.81万吨,较去年12月下旬增长了5.26万吨。虽然1月20日当旬国内重点钢企日均粗钢产量回落至151.36万吨,但是从行业网站对钢铁企业的统计来看,1月29日高炉开工率回升至73.90%,比1月22日上升了0.14%。这表明一些钢厂已经开始为年后的传统需求旺季做准备了,产量随时可以回升。导致钢铁行业发生这种变化的主要原因在于钢材生产利润好转。根据万得资讯提供的数据,全国盈利钢厂比例已经从去年12月末的4.91%回升至25.77%,并且有一部分已经停产的钢厂正在寻求资金支持,意图重新复产。   未来下游需求是什么情况呢?从2015年12月的数据来看,全国固定资产投资累计增长10.00%,较11月份下降0.2%,下滑之势略有减缓。其中12月房地产开发投资累计增速为1.00%,较前一月份下降0.3%。而12月基础设施建设投资完成额累计增长17.29%,依旧保持着高速增长。2015年下半年,为稳定经济增速,国家新批准了一批建设项目。统计局公布的数据显示,截至12月末新开工项目计划投资额累计增速为5.50%,较11月份的4.7%有明显回升;截至12月末在建工程计划投资额累计同比4.30%,较11月末的5.60%下降了1.3%。市场预计,如果项目资金及时到位的话,2016年春季有望出现一次建设高潮。而此时全社会钢材库存处于相对的低位。钢材库存大致分为钢材社会库存和钢厂库存。截至1月20日,钢厂钢材库存为1250.33万吨,与去年同期相比低15.30%。截至1月29日,螺纹钢社会库存为401.90万吨,环比上月末回升46.54万吨,与去年同期相比,则低19.72%。由于2015年钢价持续下跌,终端工地囤积钢材数量较往年下降更多。   今冬钢厂库存压力相对较轻,对贸易商的补贴政策也较往年更少,社会库存伴随钢价回升,表明贸易商屯库意愿正在增强。不过银行对于钢贸企业的贷款已经收得很紧,社会库存的增长潜力受到限制。这样一来,市场就开始预期,2016年春季将出现短期的供应短缺。   作为钢材的主要生产原料,铁矿石供给较为集中,近期矿价也相对低迷。国际矿业巨头控制销售速度,矿石外运量明显下滑。截至1月31日当周,澳大利亚和巴西出口铁矿石1647万吨,较12月末减少了777.35万吨。北方港口到货量也下降至844.40万吨,较12月末下降了525.7万吨。最近钢厂进口矿库存水平不高,截至1月29日当周,钢厂进口矿可供26天生产所需。国内港口进口矿库存9558万吨,处于相对较高的位置。随着钢厂复产,近期铁矿到港量下降,港口矿石库存可能下滑。可以预见,随着春节之后钢厂复产,铁矿石供需首先会紧张起来,成为价格上涨的推手。   回到行业层面上来,我国钢铁行业产能过剩严重,目前产能高达12亿吨。虽然近期环保压力较强,但钢铁企业多数环保设备已经具备,依靠环保手段压减产量效果可能有限。一旦钢材市场转好,钢材产量将出现快速回升,市场将重新回到供过于求的环境。此时钢铁生产利润必将受到挤压。 进入【新浪财经股吧】讨论相关的主题文章: