giving him and those who follow him a huge monthly return in an otherwise ugly market If you followed John since the beginning of the year 上海大雄宝殿平移 姚笛疑曝新恋情

Is the Fat Lady About to Sing Again for the Treasury Bond Market? From the desk of John Thomas The Mad Hedge Fund Trader Wednesday, June 08, 2011 One of my best calls of the year was to pick the bottom of the Treasury bond market in February and pile readers into synthetic long positions by shorting puts in March. That handy little trade brought in a nice 4.51% profit for my model portfolio. All good things must come to an end. Since my watershed call, the Treasury bond market has rallied an awesome ten points. The long bond ETF (TLT) has soared from 87 to 98. My logic was that a flight to safety would send Treasury bond prices to the moon, and that we have gotten in spades. While the RISK OFF trade started for the main indexes, gold, silver, and oil on April 29, it really started in February for copper, banks, and technology two and a half months earlier. With QE2 ending in a mere 22 days, I think the party is about to end for the bond market. For the last five months, the Federal Reserve has taken down virtually all of the Treasurys new issues. That amounts to $75 billion a month. That massive quantitate of new bond buying is about to end. Private US and foreign central banks are not going to be able to make up the difference, no matter how many of their cars, textiles, electronics, toys, and finger traps that we buy. This big problem is that the bond market these days is very much like a Ponzi scheme. Unless there is a steady inflow of new suckers, the entire plan collapses like a house of cards. So I am going to use this strength in the bond market to sell short some out of the money calls with September strikes. Ill be picking strike prices that equate to a ten year yield of 2.40%, last years low in yields and high in prices. That allows room for a huge, multi decade double top in bond prices to unfold over the next three months and still allow me make money on this trade. If I can see more confirmation of a double top in the bond markets, then I am going to have a reconciliation with an old flame, the (TBT), the 200% short play on the Treasury market. The only way I can lose money on this trade is for yields to blast through to new 30 year lows, driven by a true double dip recession and an utter collapse in the stock market. The volatility index for the stock market (VIX), stuck at a lowly 17% is telling us that is not going to happen, at least within the next three months, anyway. John Thomas is the father of modern-day hedge fund trading. As a father figure, youd think hed have a little more compassion when it comes to getting better returns than the major indices we follow. But, he doesnt literally trouncing the S&P 500 year-to-date return of 5.38% with an explosive 35.8% over the last 25 weeks. Thats about 7.16% per month, each month; giving him and those who follow him a huge monthly return in an otherwise ugly market If you followed John since the beginning of the year, you picked up 38.5% in your trading account. The returns in real dollars would have looked like this: $2,500 in your trading account would have turned into $3,395. $5,000 in your trading account would have turned into $6,790. $10,000 in your trading account would have turned into $13,850. $20,000 in your trading account would have turned into $27,160. His numbers are real, and you can see how he got them on his free webinar. Click here to see how John gets amazing returns each and every month. /macro-millionaire-program/is-the-fat-lady-about-to-sing-again-for-the-treasury-bond-market/ If youd like to sit side by side with John and let him help you multiply your portfolio like a winning hedge-fund manager then hes happy to mentor you and share his specific trades as he makes them just Click here to get details on his breakthrough Macro Millionaire coaching program & trading service. /macro-millionaire-program/is-the-fat-lady-about-to-sing-again-for-the-treasury-bond-market/ 相关的主题文章: